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Possible escalation in the Middle East: attack on Israel by Iran
Learn more about Caren Miosga's analysis of the “naive Iran strategy” and the recent escalation in the Middle East. Israel and Iran are facing a dangerous situation.
Possible escalation in the Middle East: attack on Israel by Iran
An escalation in the Middle East is in sight after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard attacked targets in Israel for the first time in response to the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Although most of the drones and ballistic missiles have been intercepted, the question of Israel's response remains. Caren Miosga changed her broadcast at short notice and discussed the situation with the FDP General Secretary, a German-Iranian journalist and a Middle East expert.
The attacks against Israel are seen as a “breaking of taboos” and fit into Iran’s attrition tactics to avoid a major escalation. Although state television applauded the attacks, army and government officials tried to play them down. Iran's foreign minister had previously warned, while the armed forces chief said Israel's failure to respond would end the matter.
Experts confirm that Iran did not want to cause actual damage with the attacks, but rather wanted to show a decisive response to the hardliners of the Revolutionary Guard. The message to the outside world signaled the desire for no major war. Despite the actions, experts say Israeli retaliation remains unnecessary.
The discussion also revealed a failed Iran strategy by Europe and Germany, which did not take Iran's missile program seriously enough and focused too much on the nuclear deal. The strategy of the past few years has been described as extremely naive. Experts believe that Iran could quickly produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon.
The US's importance as a player in the region is diminishing as both Israel and Iran ignore warnings from the Biden administration, saying they do not want a major conflict. This trend suggests that the era of American hegemony in the Middle East is coming to an end. Despite the bleak outlook, FDP politician Djir-Sarai also pointed to the active civil society in Iran, which signals hope for democracy and freedom. The protests of the population, especially women, could, in the long term, call into question the unsustainable system of the Islamic Republic.