Predicted 2024 Stock Market: Analyzing the January Trifecta and Potential Impact on S&P 500

Predicted 2024 Stock Market: Analyzing the January Trifecta and Potential Impact on S&P 500

According to a report by www.businessinsider.de, the stock market could see disproportionate gains in 2024 if the “January trifecta” occurs. This trifecta is an indicator that tracks the performance of the Santa Claus rally, the first five trading days of January, and the month of January as a whole. Previous data has shown that the S&P 500 averages an annual return of 17 percent when the January trifecta occurs. In 31 cases since 1950, this indicator has fired, resulting in a 90 percent probability of a positive calendar year return and an average profit of 17.2 percent.

Given this data, it is important to note that the market has already seen strong gains in 2023. All Star Charts' Grant Hawkridge believes these gains could carry over into 2024 when the 'January Threesome' takes place. The current state of the S&P 500 and its development in relation to the Santa Claus rally and the first five trading days of January were also taken into account. If 2024 continues this positive trend, the S&P 500 could reach as high as 5,600 points, which is above Wall Street's most optimistic forecasts.

However, all investments and forecasts must be viewed with caution, as stocks and other investments inherently involve risks. It is important to seek professional advice and not make investment decisions based on items alone.