DAX at a standstill: uncertainty after a day of mourning and interest rate worries!

On January 9, 2025, the DAX moved in a narrow range between 20,245 and 20,360 points and closed at 20,317 points, a decrease of 0.1%. The MDAX also closed at 25,581 points and also showed hardly any movement. US markets remained closed that day due to a national day of mourning (death of Jimmy Carter), resulting in a lack of stimulus for the German market. The day before, customs concerns had already weighed on the US stock exchanges.

The US labor market report will be published next Friday, which could provide investors with expected information about the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Investor uncertainty remains due to inflationary pressures in the US and Europe. German Bund yields rose to 2.54%, French bonds reached 3.41% and US bonds climbed to 4.73%. The dollar benefited from interest rate expectations and was quoted at $1.0305.

Current economic developments

German industrial production rose by 1.5% in November and exports also rose. Bitcoin fell to around $94,200, after hitting a high of nearly $103,000 earlier in the week. Munich Re reported that global damage from natural disasters was $320 billion in 2024, which is related to climate change. Volkswagen recorded a 1.4% decline in sales in 2024, equivalent to approximately 4.8 million cars, with the Chinese market particularly affected.

A positive aspect was seen in the market share of German electric car manufacturers, which rose from 49% to 61%, despite the decline in sales figures. Lufthansa shares fell over 4% after a negative analyst comment from JP Morgan and have lost around 20% overall in 2024. Ryanair plans to expand its flight offering at German regional airports by 800,000 seats. It is also reported that the clinical software company Nexus is leaving the SDAX, while About You is returning and is facing a takeover by Zalando.

The release of the U.S. December jobs report on Friday could show moderate job growth numbers. Analysts expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could make its interest rate policy less aggressive given what is expected to be a slow increase in employment. A slower pace of monetary easing was already signaled at the last Fed meeting in December. Economists forecast 160,000 new jobs added in December, up from 227,000 the previous month, while the unemployment rate could remain at 4.2%. Average monthly job growth for 2024 is estimated at 180,000.