Skilled labor shortage: Germany faces 768,000 unfilled positions by 2028!

Skilled labor shortage: Germany faces 768,000 unfilled positions by 2028!

According to a study, the skills gap in Germany will grow rapidly. In particular, educators, social workers, nurses and salespeople are currently missing from the labor market. These developments are reflected in the results of the German Economic Institute (IW), which points to a forecast that around 768,000 positions could remain unfilled by 2028. For comparison: In 2024 there were already 487,000 unfilled positions. The main reason for this worrying situation is demographic change, as many workers will retire.

In addition, problems that can arise due to a lack of daycare and nursing places are pointed out. These deficiencies limit the changes in working hours of employees. The IW analysis is based on data from 2023 and includes trends in 1,300 occupations. The bottlenecks are particularly serious among salespeople, where the skills gap could grow from 12,900 to 40,470. A shortage of around 30,800 jobs is also forecast for childcare workers, followed by over 21,150 shortages in social work and a good 21,350 in health and nursing care.

Growing challenges and opportunities

The study shows that the largest increase in jobs is expected in child care, with an expected 143,400 additional jobs by 2028. Still, this increase will not be enough to meet demand. In addition, an increase of 26% is expected in IT professions due to advancing digitalization. In contrast, there is a drastic decline in metal professions, with a predicted 161,200 fewer jobs by 2028. Bank clerks will also be affected by a decline: around 56,300 fewer jobs are expected due to automation and branch closures.

In order to meet these challenges, the IW recommends expanding career orientation in schools, providing incentives for longer periods of employment and making it easier for skilled immigration.

Insight into skilled worker monitoring

The skilled labor monitoring of the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (BMAS) analyzes the labor market flows of supply and demand for the period from 2024 to 2028. In this analysis, skilled worker needs, bottlenecks and surpluses in various professional groups are estimated, using the Qube project as a basis. The monitoring, which has been carried out since 2007 under the leadership of the Federal Institute for Vocational Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Research (IAB), takes into account key assumptions on the influence of digitalization and climate change as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict.

Demographic change has a direct impact on the labor market: the group of working people is becoming smaller, which is difficult to compensate for through immigration and a higher propensity to work. In addition, many industries such as construction are struggling with high prices and interest rates, which are reducing their growth. Private household consumption, however, remains a driving factor for economic growth, while exports are losing importance.

A look into the future shows that in the next five years, 618,000 people without a qualification could enter the labor market, while only 396,000 helper positions are available. This indicates significant fit problems that could further aggravate the labor market situation.

In summary, Germany faces the challenge of filling vacancies despite a shrinking labor force. Factors such as regional differences in demographic change and the need to embrace structural change will be crucial to counteracting the emerging skills gap.

For detailed information on the results of the study, please refer to the comprehensive analysis by t-online.de and bmas.de.