Crisis mood on the stock market: tariffs could soon rise again!

Crisis mood on the stock market: tariffs could soon rise again!

On July 5, 2025, the financial markets are at a critical point. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit new record highs, reflecting investor confidence despite potential risks. The S&P 500 closed at 6,227.42 points, while the Nasdaq ended at 20,393.13 points, both of which are new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, fell slightly by 10.52 points to 44,484.42 points. However, these developments could be overshadowed by an urgent threat that could emerge in mid-July.

The background is the imminent end of the customs moratorium on July 9th, which has already been in force for 90 days. This is very reminiscent of Donald Trump's tariff announcement in the White House. A return of full-scale tariffs could quickly jeopardize the current positive market sentiment. So far, progress in trade deal negotiations has been sparse, with only deals reached with Britain and Vietnam. Tariffs on imports from Vietnam are 20%, which is a significant factor in the performance of some companies' stocks.

Market dynamics and trade agreements

However, investors are optimistic given the recent positive developments in purchasing managers' indices and labor market data. Despite warnings from experts warning of possible surprises in the markets, four key bets have been made that are shaping the current market environment:

• Die Horrorzölle kommen nicht zurück.
• Die Wirtschaft kann mit 10% Zöllen leben.
• Die Inflation bleibt unter Kontrolle, was zu Zinssenkungen durch die Fed führen könnte.
• Die von Trump angekündigten Steuersenkungen treten in Kraft.

However, it was reported that the labor market ended weaker recently, as shown by the ADP report, which recorded a loss of 33,000 jobs in June - the first negative number since March 2023. Analysts had expected a gain of 100,000 jobs. This could lead to the Federal Reserve considering cutting interest rates if the upcoming jobs data also disappoints.

Technology and market reactions

The stock markets have shown a mixed performance. For example, while Tesla gained 4%, companies like Centene also faced a decline of over 39% after the company withdrew its full-year forecast. Trading was turbulent, particularly for technologies sold in the first half of the year. Prices fell briefly before the market stabilized.

The “TACO narrative,” based on the hope that Trump might back down under market pressure, also plays a role. In connection with this situation, economic experts suggest long-term investment strategies to cushion possible negative surprises. Another negative is that short sellers have lost about $300 billion since April, mostly in the technology and consumer sectors. Still, there is cheer to be had from the dividend increases announced by major banks following the Federal Reserve's stress tests.

In conclusion, the markets are facing a crucial phase in which both positive and negative factors play a role. Many investors are caught between confidence and caution as trade deal developments continue to unfold. Focus.de and NBC New York continually provide up-to-date analyzes of this dynamic market situation.