Suche
Mein Konto
Pension forecast for 2025: Difficult assessment of pension adjustments
Find out why pension increases could potentially be smaller from 2025. The pension adjustment forecast is complex, but important factors play a role. Find out what the future could hold for retirees.
Pension forecast for 2025: Difficult assessment of pension adjustments
In July 2024, the pension in Germany will be increased by 4.57 percent. This increase represents a positive development for pensioners, as they are benefiting from the positive development of wages and salaries for the third year in a row. This increase is taking place for the first time in both the new and old federal states.
The pension adjustment is based on the pension adjustment formula, which uses the development of gross wages in Germany as a basis. When wages rise, pensions also rise accordingly. However, many other factors are crucial, which makes it difficult to forecast pension adjustments in the coming years. Despite these challenges, it may be worth making a rough comparison for some rough guidance.
The federal government publishes an annual pension insurance report that presents the development of statutory pension insurance in the past, present and future. This report also provides model calculations of the change in gross wages and salaries, the number of employees and the unemployed from 2022 to 2027 in percent. However, the forecast for pension increases in 2025 and subsequent years remains uncertain and difficult to predict.
The German Pension Insurance points out that the pension adjustment in 2025 could possibly be lower if, for example, the increase in relevant gross wages decreases. Pension cuts are excluded by law, even if gross wages decline. In addition, it is not legally possible for the pension level to fall below 48 percent by 2025. So the pension situation remains stabilized for now, although future increases may be slowed.