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Interest rate difference exceeds limits: Greil warns of US inflation risk!
Merck Finck strategy: Interest rate difference between USA and Eurozone widens. Key interest rate adjustments and economic data in focus.
Interest rate difference exceeds limits: Greil warns of US inflation risk!
Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck, commented on the current interest rate developments in the USA and the Eurozone. According to his assessments, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to further cut key interest rates, while the US central bank Federal Reserve (Fed) will not make any changes. Greil expects a total of four key interest rate cuts by the ECB this year, which is twice as many as the Fed forecast.
Greil also points to a higher risk of inflation in the USA compared to the Eurozone. This causes the interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone to widen, supporting the dollar. In this context, important economic data will be on the agenda next week, including the Ifo business climate index and retail sales in Germany.
Important economic data at a glance
- Deutschland:
- Ifo-Geschäftsklima für Januar und Einzelhandelsumsätze für Dezember am Montag
- Vorläufiges Bruttoinlandsprodukt für Q4 2024 am Donnerstag
- Arbeitsmarktzahlen und vorläufige Inflationsdaten für Januar am Freitag
- Eurozone:
- Bruttoinlandsprodukt und Wirtschaftsvertrauen für Januar am Donnerstag
- USA:
- Verbrauchervertrauen und Auftragseingänge für langlebige Wirtschaftsgüter am Dienstag
- Bruttoinlandsprodukt für Q4 2024 am Donnerstag
- Neue Kerninflationsdaten für Dezember am Freitag
- Asien:
- Einkaufsmanagerindizes für Januar aus China am Montag und Freitag
- Japan:
- Arbeitsmarkt-, Industrie- und Einzelhandelsdaten für Dezember am Freitag
Key interest rates are crucial for monetary policy and economic growth. They specify the conditions under which credit institutions can borrow money from central and central banks. According to the information from finance.net The goal of central and central banks is to achieve a stable price level and a low inflation rate. They influence interest rates on the money market by setting interest rates.
The responsible institutions include, among others, the ECB for the Eurozone, the Bank of England, the US Central Bank Fed and the Bank of Japan. Significant interest rates include the deposit rate, the prime lending rate and the federal funds rate.