Customs crisis defused: DAX reaches record high – investors beware!

Customs crisis defused: DAX reaches record high – investors beware!

The latest developments in the trade conflict between the USA and China have led to an unprecedented easing of tensions. The two superpowers have agreed to a temporary “ceasefire” that will result in a suspension of high tariffs for 90 days. This decision had a positive impact on the financial markets: US stock markets rose, while the DAX reached a record high of 23,912 points after around two thirds of DAX companies reported positive earnings surprises in the first quarter.

How Focus reported that tariffs between the USA and China have been significantly reduced. The US reduced tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China in turn reduced tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. This represents a reduction of 115 percentage points in each case, even if certain sectors are excluded from this agreement.

Reactions of the markets and the economy

The reactions to this development were prompt. China's CSI 300 stock index rose 1.2%, and companies such as Maersk benefited with a rise of around 10% in their share prices. German automobile manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes were also able to enjoy increased share prices. In contrast, the price of gold fell by over 2% to around $3,216 per troy ounce. These movements are an indicator of returning confidence in the markets.

The background to these events also includes the fact that the previously high tariffs resulted in an almost complete paralysis of trade between the two countries, which had a negative impact on the global economy. Both sides praise the talks as “constructive,” and US Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasizes that they are against economic decoupling. Nevertheless, observers warn against premature euphoria, as tariff levels remain higher than at the beginning of the year.

Future developments and economic data

Despite the positive news, uncertainty regarding customs conflicts remains. Although the economic indicators show an improvement in economic activity, pull-forward effects can be observed in some economic data. In this context, sentiment indicators show a possible recovery. The ZEW economic expectations in Euroland and Germany have also risen noticeably, and better-than-expected growth in gross domestic product was recorded in Great Britain and Norway.

An important focus is now on the upcoming economic data, such as Chinese industrial production and the purchasing managers' indices in Euroland, as well as the ifo business climate in Germany. This data will be crucial for the further development of the markets and could influence the currently cautious interest rate cut expectations at both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

The 90-day suspension of tariffs, which came into effect earlier, has raised hopes of stabilizing international trade. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether a final agreement between the US and China can be reached by the July deadline.

The current developments in the trade conflict mark a turning point that presents both opportunities and risks. At a time when global markets are recovering from the impact of past trade wars, attention to possible changes in economic conditions is crucial.