MicroStrategy on the brink: Is the Bitcoin market in danger of tipping over?

MicroStrategy on the brink: Is the Bitcoin market in danger of tipping over?

In recent years, MicroStrategy has transformed itself from a software provider to the largest listed Bitcoin investor. The group currently holds 597,325 BTC, which represents around 3% of the total Bitcoin supply. However, this central role in the crypto market has also brought with it significant risks that alarm analysts and critical voices. Currently, MicroStrategy's market capitalization is approximately $103 billion and the company is included in major stock indices such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA and Russell 2000. Around $14 billion flows into MicroStrategy through ETFs and investment funds.

The company's dependence on Bitcoin price developments is extremely high. MicroStrategy has raised $7.2 billion in convertible debt and has no significant cash reserves. This makes the balance sheet vulnerable to price fluctuations. Analysts warn of potential selling of Bitcoin holdings if the price falls significantly. A price drop could trigger a cascade of selling that could have a major impact on the entire market. The average purchase price of Bitcoin is about $70,982, and a price below that level could result in significant book losses and forced selling, even though the convertible notes' maturities extend into the next decade.

Risks and challenges

The challenges of this strategy are diverse. Critics fear that centralizing Bitcoin supply within one company could jeopardize the decentralization that once characterized the crypto world. Bitcoin's price is currently at USD 108,635, while MicroStrategy's share price is at EUR 331.60. Interestingly, MicroStrategy owns almost 3% of all Bitcoins in existence. Still, the company suffered an 80% loss from its all-time high.

Additionally, the company's software revenue is showing a worrying trend as it has fallen to a 15-year low and now accounts for just 18% of total assets. This leads to increased questions about the long-term sustainability of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy. The $10 million insider sale by a senior employee and an ongoing class action lawsuit over alleged false statements about crypto strategy are adding pressure on the company.

Market conditions and liquidity risks

The dependence on the market valuation of MicroStrategy shares is also problematic, as they often trade at premiums to the net asset value. A decline in the premium could significantly limit access to new capital. Additionally, two law firms filed a securities fraud lawsuit on June 19, 2025, increasing the Company's legal risk.

The bigger picture is bleak: With institutional investors approaching $50 billion in investments in MicroStrategy, it remains to be seen how current market conditions will impact the company's future. The risk of a market collapse should not be underestimated if capital inflows dry up and investor optimism weakens. In this dynamic environment, MicroStrategy remains in the focus of investors and analysts.[it-boltwise] reports that...[krypto-magazin] adds that...