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Oil prices: Experts warn of possible escalation
Before Iran's attack on Israel, experts are faced with crucial considerations about the development of oil prices - soon over 100 dollars? Get all the details here. #CurrentNews #OilPrices #IranIsraelConflict
Oil prices: Experts warn of possible escalation
Oil prices have been trending higher since the start of the year and may be at a tipping point, influenced by Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. There are different scenarios that are being discussed by experts, with Israel's pending response being seen as a decisive factor. Despite Iran's attack on Israel, oil prices fell. Experts believe that a risk premium has already been taken into account. However, further escalation of the situation could push oil prices above the $100 mark.
The prices for WTI and Brent oil have risen significantly since January. Last Friday, oil prices hit a high since October 2023 due to tensions in the Middle East, with Brent trading above $92 at one point. Iran attacked Israel with rockets, drones and cruise missiles, with most attacks intercepted. This action was viewed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Israel's response is seen as crucial in determining the future trajectory of oil prices.
The weekend's events initially led to a drop in oil prices as Israel had not yet responded to the drone attack. The oil market situation remained relatively calm on Tuesday, reflecting Israel's cautious response. Expert Kai Eckert from the Energy Information Service (EID) emphasized that geopolitical events are currently having a muted impact on oil prices.
Experts such as Darwei Kung of DWS Group and Michael Lynch of Strategic Energy & Economic Research (SEER) have pointed out that an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran could push oil prices into triple digits. The market is currently taking a wait-and-see approach to the conflict, but if it escalates, prices could rise to over $100 per barrel. EID boss Eckert believes such a price increase is possible, especially in a major geopolitical crisis.
A further escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran poses risks for the global economy, as Iran is a major oil supplier and a member of the OPEC+ production network. Disruptions in oil transportation could severely impact Gulf oil supplies, which would have global economic implications. Experts warn of a possible downgrade in global growth expectations if oil prices rise sharply, potentially leading to a recession. KPMG's Regina Mayor was more dovish, emphasizing that oil markets are accustomed to volatility, but a major conflict in the Middle East could temporarily push oil prices above $100 a barrel.