Oil prices are plummeting: gasoline supplies are under pressure – what now?

Oil prices are plummeting: gasoline supplies are under pressure – what now?

On June 2, 2025, global gasoline prices show a slight decline, as vietnam.vn reported. Brent oil prices are currently at $62.61 per barrel, down 0.90%. WTI oil price also falls, to $60.79 per barrel, down 0.25%. Both prices have already lost over 1% in the trading week, marking their second consecutive decline.

Investors are eagerly awaiting OPEC+'s official decision on production policy. On May 31, a possible increase in production levels to over 411,000 barrels per day for July was discussed, adding to uncertainty about the exact level of supply, particularly from Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia. daily news highlights that OPEC+ has gradually increased oil production from April 1, 2025, as eight oil alliance states reduce their voluntary production cuts.

Market forecasts and oil prices

Market observers expect that oil prices could tend to fall given the increase in supply. A forecast from JPMorgan calls for near-term oil prices to be between $75-80 a barrel, but a decline to $70 or less could occur by the end of the year. ING expects OPEC+ to maintain its production increases until the end of the third quarter.
The IEA predicts an oversupply of the oil market by 600,000 barrels per day.

In the US, data shows a significant decline in inventories of gasoline and distillates, which is impacting domestic prices. As of June 2, 2025, domestic gasoline prices are as follows:

• Benzin E5 RON 92: 19.196 VND/Liter (+74 VND)
• Benzin RON 95: 19.565 VND/Liter (+33 VND)
• Diesel: 17.136 VND/Liter (-269 VND)
• Kerosin: 17.108 VND/Liter (-206 VND)
• Heizöl: 16.264 VND/kg (-248 VND)

Influence of external factors

Geopolitical tensions also have an impact on oil prices. Former President Trump is continuing his sanctions against Iran, which could put further pressure on Iranian oil exports, which currently stand at around 1.4 million barrels per day. He is also threatening Russia with special tariffs, which could have an additional impact on prices. In addition, Trump plans to impose secondary tariffs on countries that buy Iranian or Venezuelan oil, further complicating market conditions.
Although the months of March, April and May are traditionally positive for oil prices as the driving season begins in the US, economists are warning of a possible recession that could reduce demand and prices.

Overall, current developments make it clear that the oil market is influenced by numerous factors, resulting from both supply and demand, which could shape price trends in the coming months. The adjustments in domestic gasoline prices in Vietnam since the beginning of 2025, with 22 adjustment phases (9 decreases, 8 increases, 5 opposite phases), also reflect the volatile market conditions.