Scrap needs in the German steel industry: Investments required now!

Scrap needs in the German steel industry: Investments required now!

A current study by the Ernst Abbe University Jena analyzes the future scrap needs of the German steel industry up to 2045. The publication, which took place on July 11, 2025, was by Prof. Dr. Frank Pothen, Maik Hartung and Carolin Hundt wrote. The study quantifies the necessary scrap requirements in nine different scenarios and shows that the availability of steel scrap in Germany is estimated to be sufficient to cover the increasing demand. However, it highlights the important challenge of investing in high quality scrap, particularly for electric production routes such as electric arc furnaces, and this could lead to shortages if there is no investment in collection, sorting and processing. Associations such as BDSV, bvse and VDM are therefore calling for urgent investment support from politics and industry in order to implement the necessary technologies.

The managing director of the BDSV, Guido Lipinski, emphasizes the urgency of developing modern processing plants and quality assurance technologies. It also emphasizes the need for investment guarantees and long-term offtake agreements with the steel industry to ensure economic security for financing such projects. This is particularly important in the context of the transformation of the steel industry, as the study provides a solid basis for discussion about the industry's future raw material supply.

Expectations and challenges

Although a general shortage of scrap is not expected, there are concerns that shortages of high-quality scrap could occur without timely investment in the relevant technologies. Collaboration between the steel recycling industry and the steel industry is seen as crucial to securing raw material supplies and achieving ambitious climate goals. The use of scrap in steel production significantly reduces CO2 emissions, which is of key importance for the industry.

The study results show that the steel industry wants to produce climate-neutrally by 2045. Every ton of remelted steel scrap is viewed as a measure to avoid around 1.66 tons of CO2 compared to primary production. Given that the steel industry already causes around a third of industrial CO2 emissions in Germany, these ambitions are particularly important.

Scrap demand forecasts

The study predicts that scrap demand for 2030 could be between 17 and 22.7 million tonnes, while for 2045 it is estimated to be around 14.9 to 27.6 million tonnes. Of particular note is the need for high-quality scrap, which is estimated to be between 4.3 and 7.7 million tonnes in 2030 and between 2.7 and 10.1 million tonnes in 2045. However, the availability of steel scrap is considered sufficient in most scenarios, provided that measures are taken to improve collection, sorting and processing and to maintain import opportunities.

The study authors recommend that scrap requirements should also be quantified at the European level in order to develop a comprehensive strategy to cover future requirements in the steel industry and promote the competitiveness and sustainability of the industry.