Bitcoin on the way to a million: US recession as a possible price driver!

Bitcoin on the way to a million: US recession as a possible price driver!

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. In his predictions, he says that this digital currency could reach a value of one million dollars by 2028. This assessment is based on the assumption that confidence in US government bonds is increasingly dwindling. This could lead to investors turning away from these traditional investment vehicles and considering alternative investment options such as Bitcoin. US economic policy measures, coupled with global instability, could result in capital flight, which could further boost Bitcoin. Hayes points out that possible capital controls in Western countries could also force people to look for new investment opportunities.

Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a decentralized and internet-based currency, seen by many as a safe haven in uncertain times. Chris Kuiper of Fidelity Digital Assets partially supports Hayes' view, noting that investing in U.S. Treasury bonds has made little significant progress over the past 100 years after accounting for inflation and taxes.

Risks and Opportunities in the US Economy

Investors are worried about a possible recession in the US as numerous economic indicators point to a slowdown. High interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, declining consumer demand and geopolitical uncertainties are weighing on economic growth. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the likelihood of a recession has increased, albeit at a moderate level. Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics warns of high risks in this area.

Experts expect either a mild recession or a so-called “soft landing” for the current year. In this context, BlackRock analyzes that a US recession could act as a possible price driver for Bitcoin. Traditional asset classes like stocks often lose value during a recession, which could lead investors to choose alternative stores of value like Bitcoin. This is supported by the view that Bitcoin is often referred to as “digital gold” and is considered scarce, decentralized and independent.

Current market development

Although the Bitcoin price has fallen by over 16% since January 20, 2025, from an all-time high of around $109,115 to around $85,058, many professional investors currently see the pullback as a buying opportunity. BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick predicts that increased government spending, deficits, and lower interest rates could benefit Bitcoin. Investor confidence in digital currencies is growing amid existing uncertainties in traditional financial markets.

However, the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain and is influenced by various factors such as regulations, technological developments and investor behavior. Nevertheless, the optimistic forecasts for the Bitcoin community still seem to be strengthening.