Trump increases tariffs: Is the US economy now at risk of a big crash?

Trump increases tariffs: Is the US economy now at risk of a big crash?

The US economy is at a crucial turning point. Donald Trump has once again caused a stir by coming up with drastic measures to influence the crypto market and an aggressive tariff policy. The USA has announced plans to increase tariffs on numerous countries, which could put a severe strain on international economic relations. Loud wallstreet-online.de Tariffs on North Korea and Japan have been raised to 25%, while Thailand and Cambodia will face 36% and other countries such as Indonesia and Bosnia will face up to 32%. These new tariffs are scheduled to come into force from August 1, 2025.

In addition, tariffs of up to 50% on copper were announced. Revenues from tariffs already reached $27.3 billion in July. Analysts view these tariffs as a kind of financing plan for the US government. However, this could weigh on the stock market as 85% of S&P 500 companies are currently in the blackout period. Analysts warn that Trump's threats could significantly damage the market and inflation could rise, with estimates ranging between 1.2% and 2.2%.

Economic framework conditions

Meanwhile, Trump has made fundamental changes to US economic policy since taking office, and this has led to sharp fluctuations in the stock market and an adjustment in economic forecasts. The recovery of the US economy after the corona pandemic began to weaken at the end of 2024, which, combined with Trump's tariff policy, led to a setback in economic growth. As the ZDF Today reports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the growth forecast for 2025 from the original 2.7% to 1.8%.

Inflation was high in 2022 but has declined under President Biden and currently under Trump. Central banks are targeting an annual inflation rate of 2%, but prices are not falling to previous levels despite the recovery. Concerns about rising prices due to announced tariffs are pervasive and consumer sentiment remains low. This situation is very reminiscent of the circumstances three years ago.

Political mood and effects

The political mood is also important in this heated situation. While Republican sentiment is rising, that of Democrats and independents is sinking. Trump's tariff policy has already led to a significant drop on the stock markets; the S&P index temporarily lost over 13%, but was able to recover somewhat after the announcement of a suspension of tariffs. The stock markets still remain far below the values ​​recorded when Trump took office.

Overall, the current economic situation is characterized by uncertainty, both for consumers and for the markets. The coming months could be crucial in understanding how the US economy will perform under the new conditions.