Commerzbank in a downward spiral: High takeover fantasy by UniCredit!

Commerzbank in a downward spiral: High takeover fantasy by UniCredit!

Last week, Commerzbank shares suffered a dramatic fall of almost 12%. This follows a remarkable rise over 2023, in which the stock recorded a performance of over 135% and almost reached the €40.00 mark. However, the price is currently moving closer to the 30.00 euro threshold, which is causing concern among investors. Over the year, the share price has fallen significantly, although it is up 108% since the beginning of the year, while the Euro Stoxx Banks index is up 54%. Société Générale, the second ranked bank in the index, achieved a performance of 91.5%.

Analysts have made several downgrades in recent days. Philipp Häßler from DZ Bank, for example, has downgraded Commerzbank shares to “sell” and considers them to be “valued too high”. He sets the price target at 28.00 euros. Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank lowered his recommendation from “Buy” to “Neutral” and sees the fair value at 35.00 euros, but expects a potential purchase price of 32.00 euros per share. Despite these downgrades, there are several reasons for the price increase so far, including the federal government's investment program and positive operational developments at Commerzbank.

Takeover fantasies and strategic developments

The takeover issue is further fueled by UniCredit's activities. The Italian financial institution recently announced that it would expand its stake in Commerzbank. UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel explained this during the general meeting, emphasizing that the bank became the largest shareholder without prior consultation with Commerzbank. However, this development does not seem to cause much enthusiasm at Commerzbank. The company has made it clear that it remains committed to its own goals and plans to increase its profit targets and dividends in order to stabilize the share price and make possible takeovers more difficult.

In the first half of 2025, Commerzbank achieved an impressive operating result of 2.4 billion euros. However, there is also worrying news as the bank plans to cut around 3,000 jobs, which is facing resistance from employees due to existing concerns about massive job cuts of up to 15,000 jobs. UniCredit has announced that promoting a takeover with investments and location guarantees could increase its stake to 29 percent, which would mean more “rights and influence” in Commerzbank.

Political resistance and future outlook

Despite UniCredit's growing takeover fantasies, there is resistance to this development, particularly from the federal government, which is the second largest shareholder. If UniCredit exceeds the 30 percent mark, it would have to submit an official takeover offer. Analysts and market participants express concerns about the stability of Commerzbank shares in the coming weeks. Major shareholders have also expressed concerns that the stock could fall 5% if UniCredit actually exits. However, given the increase of over 100% since the beginning of the year, this would be manageable.

Finally, DER AKTIONÄR recommends investors who have not yet invested in Commerzbank to also consider other European banks. Financial and strategic developments will continue to be closely monitored in order to assess the future course of Commerzbank and its potential takeover.