Commerzbank takeover failed for now: UniCredit boss expresses concerns!

Commerzbank takeover failed for now: UniCredit boss expresses concerns!

The takeover of Commerzbank by the Italian UniCredit is currently on the brink. UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel recently stated that Commerzbank's current share price is too high, meaning a takeover bid for the German bank is considered too expensive. This assessment could significantly influence the dynamics of the negotiations, as shown by the reaction of the Commerzbank share price to Orcel's statements, which is described as remarkable. The share price has almost doubled since UniCredit entered the market in September 2024 and is now at 23.34 euros.

UniCredit has been planning a possible takeover of Commerzbank for some time, and the European Central Bank (ECB) recently approved increasing Commerzbank's stake to up to 29.9 percent. There had previously been considerations that UniCredit could gain greater control over Commerzbank by purchasing shares. However, further approvals are still pending, particularly from the Federal Cartel Office, so UniCredit does not yet have full access to the bank.

Approvals and market developments

One of the existing challenges is that a decision on the merger will take “well beyond 2025,” according to Orcel. In the meantime, Commerzbank remains independent and views UniCredit's actions as hostile. With 9.5 percent, UniCredit is the second largest shareholder in Commerzbank, behind the federal government, which holds 12 percent. In addition, UniCredit has options and derivatives for an additional 18.5 percent, but an exchange for shares can only take place after receiving the necessary approvals.

The ECB's decision was not surprising as UniCredit has a strong balance sheet, although the Bundeskartellamt's possible impact on competition is still pending. Commerzbank currently has a market value of 27.5 billion euros, which underlines the attractiveness of this transaction.

Political reactions

The political reactions to the proposed takeover are also significant. The CDU candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed skepticism about a possible sale of Commerzbank. He emphasizes the importance of Commerzbank for German medium-sized businesses and foreign trade. This could indicate that a takeover cannot be carried out at the political level without resistance.

While UniCredit is simultaneously trying to take over Banco BPM in Italy and plans to submit an offer for this in April, it remains to be seen how the situation surrounding Commerzbank will develop. The next steps and decisions from regulators, as well as market reactions, are likely to be crucial to the course of this potential acquisition.

In summary, it can be said that Commerzbank's takeover of UniCredit is on the rocks for the time being, and it is only a matter of time before the next decisive developments emerge.

For more details, see the articles from The shareholder and South German newspaper.