UniCredit becomes Commerzbank's largest shareholder: What happens now?

UniCredit becomes Commerzbank's largest shareholder: What happens now?

Commerzbank has gone through a turbulent phase in recent days, marked by a significant increase in its share prices. On July 16, 2025, Commerzbank shares rose to a new multi-year high of 30.74 euros, something not seen in 14 years. This increase reflects interest from UniCredit, which recently gained control of a larger share of Commerzbank. Loud The shareholder However, the overall market could be under pressure after several setbacks.

UniCredit has now officially taken over 20 percent of the shares in Commerzbank, making it the largest anchor shareholder. This was done by converting part of their derivative positions, which were previously used to secure shares in Commerzbank. The team around UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel has secured access to a total of 29 percent of the bank's shares and plans to convert a further 9 percent, also secured via derivatives, into shares. A step that brings them closer to the critical mark of 30 percent, above which a mandatory offer must be made to the remaining shareholders Capital.

Political dimension and reactions

Despite UniCredit's commercial interest, there is resistance to a takeover. The federal government supports the independence of Commerzbank and has given its backing to the management, which is critical of a takeover by UniCredit. Orcel, on the other hand, had initiated discussions with the federal government about a possible rapprochement, but did not receive any positive feedback. The Verdi union also expressed concerns about a possible sale of Commerzbank to UniCredit and emphasized the importance of an independent bank.

UniCredit's actions are criticized by Commerzbank as not being coordinated, which calls the company's independence into question. UniCredit, on the other hand, emphasizes that all necessary approvals have been obtained from the relevant supervisory authorities and sees advantages in closer cooperation between Commerzbank and the Munich subsidiary HVB.

Market analysis and prospects

Commerzbank's current financial situation is characterized by a price-earnings ratio (P/E) of 12, which is above the peer group's average P/E of 10. Analysts have identified the mark of just under 20.00 euros as the financial pain threshold for UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel. A takeover seems theoretically possible, but might not really be economically viable. It is suspected that UniCredit may wait before making a takeover offer, especially if Commerzbank's share price falls below the 30.00 euro mark.

The market is curious to see how this situation will develop. While invested investors remain on board, potential new entrants could look for alternatives at other European banks.