China's climate policy 2025: turning point or dead end for the earth?

China's climate policy 2025: turning point or dead end for the earth?

Global climate policy is at a crucial turning point as temperatures rise and extreme weather events increase. In this context, the USA is once again withdrawing from its international responsibility, which is increasingly drawing attention to Berlin, Brussels and Beijing. China's climate policy in particular plays a key role in the effort to achieve the 1.5 degree target of the Paris Climate Agreement. China, which became the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 2006, now represents 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 28% of CO2 emissions, with per capita emissions of 10.1 tonnes, comparable to developed OECD countries and above the EU average.

A turning point in China's climate policy could be reached in 2025, as CO2 emissions could potentially fall for the first time, despite increasing energy demand. This is in line with China's upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, whose updated national climate targets (NDCs) must be submitted to the United Nations by February 2025. These goals will shape Chinese climate policy until 2035 and determine whether the Paris climate goals remain realistic.

China's climate goals and international responsibility

These developments come at a time when China's cities are suffering from severe air pollution, which can be seen in part as a driver for climate policy action. Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening-up policy, which began around 40 years ago, led to enormous economic growth and enabled hundreds of millions of people to escape poverty. But this growth was also accompanied by a massive increase in environmental pollution, which contributed to global warming. China's coal consumption has increased more than tenfold since 1965, and the country produces and consumes more than half of the world's coal.

In the context of the upcoming NDC template, it is crucial that Germany and the EU take a more active role in climate diplomacy. Especially after the US withdrawal, Germany could act as a bridge in dialogue with China. However, in order to make credible demands on China, Germany must uphold its own climate ambitions. The climate fight is hampered by internal challenges within the EU and Germany, which increases the urgency of acting strategically on climate policy.

The role of China in international climate protection

China's decisions this year will have a significant impact on whether the 1.5 degree target can be met. Despite increased investment in renewable energy, the country remains heavily dependent on coal, with 29 GW of new coal-fired power plants commissioned in 2020 and a further 200 GW planned in 2021-2025. Such decisions could jeopardize the achievement of the goals, especially given that China continues to view itself as a developing country and therefore calls for global climate justice.

German federal policymakers must develop a deeper understanding of China's importance in climate policy and at the same time use the time to accelerate their actions. Technical innovations should be integrated into China's climate strategy in order to effectively achieve the climate goals. China's leadership group to improve energy efficiency and the launch of a nationwide emissions trading system in 2021 are steps in the right direction, but dependence on fossil fuels remains a huge challenge.

The coming months are crucial for European climate diplomacy, especially in view of China's NDC submission in September. It is clear that without China's ambitious climate policy, compliance with the 1.5 degree limit is not possible.

Overall, it is clear that China's role in international climate protection is indispensable. The climate watchlist will continue to tighten as the global community waits to see how Beijing responds to global challenges and what steps it will take to reduce carbon emissions. Both China and the international community face the challenge of finding the balance between economic growth and environmental protection to ensure a sustainable future.