Suche
Mein Konto
German economy surprisingly strong: ZEW barometer surprises everyone!
Economic expectations in Germany are rising surprisingly, influenced by investments and political measures. Current analysis on this.
German economy surprisingly strong: ZEW barometer surprises everyone!
The barometer for economic expectations in Germany experienced an unexpected increase in June. How fuw.ch reported, the value rose by 22.3 points to 47.5 points. This sharp increase is surprising, as economists had only forecast an increase to 35.0 points.
The survey, which was conducted among 200 investors and analysts, indicates that financial market players are more optimistic about the future development of the German economy. ZEW boss Achim Wambach emphasizes that increased investments and more robust consumer demand have been identified as positive factors.
Fiscal policy impulses and interest rate cuts
Another aspect that contributes to this optimistic assessment are the financial policy measures of the new federal government, which, according to experts, could provide positive impetus for the economy. In addition, interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could end the current economic stagnation in Germany. DekaBank economist Andreas Scheuerle agrees and emphasizes that trust in the new government has increased now that the trade conflict with the USA has been overcome.
Nevertheless, there are new risks that could weigh on the economy. The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran has potentially serious consequences, including rising oil prices and falling stock prices. These uncertainties could quickly cloud the current positive mood.
Current situation and GDP forecasts
The barometer for the current situation has also risen, by 10.0 points to minus 72.0 points. This represents the biggest improvement in over two years, although economists had only expected an improvement to minus 75.0 points. Nevertheless, Germany still has the worst value of all Euro countries in terms of the current situation.
With regard to economic development, several leading research institutes have increased their economic forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Ifo Institute, RWI and IfW expect gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 0.3% in 2025, while the IWH even expects 0.4%. For the following year, GDP is forecast to increase by around 1.5%.
The ZEW financial market test, which has been carried out monthly since 1991, surveys up to 300 experts from banks, insurance companies and finance departments of large companies. The aim of the survey is to collect assessments and forecasts on international financial market data. The ZEW economic expectations determined are considered an important early indicator of the economic situation in Germany and are published at regular intervals ZEW financial market report published.