Export industry warns: Study recommends strategy adjustment

Export industry warns: Study recommends strategy adjustment

The export industry in Germany is facing a challenge as the Prognos Institute predicts a permanent weakening of globalization. The consulting company's experts emphasize that a revitalization of multilateral global cooperation in economic policy is unlikely. There is even talk of a realistic scenario of a partial reversal of economic globalization, which would entail significant risks and potential consequential damage for companies and economies in Europe, especially for Germany.

According to estimates by the institute, around a third of Germany's added value is currently exported. The authors of the study point to the growing geopolitical tensions and emphasize the high dependence on China for certain products such as laptops, even though the rest of the EU is the most important sales market. A worrying example is the decline in exports to Russia since the attack on Ukraine in 2022, highlighting the export industry's vulnerability to political developments.

To counteract the possible risks, the authors recommend increased diversification of supply chains in order to reduce dependence on individual locations. While a complete decoupling from China and other risky markets in the short term would result in massive market losses, targeted restructuring could protect companies in the long term. For example, electric motors could increasingly be sourced from North America to reduce vulnerability to Chinese suppliers.