Kazakh economy is growing strongly: challenges still exist!

Kazakh economy is growing strongly: challenges still exist!

In the first four months of 2025, Kazakhstan recorded robust GDP growth of 6%, particularly driven by strong developments in transport and trade. Loud euractiv.de the transport sector shows a remarkable growth of 22.4%. This is largely due to increased rail and pipeline freight volumes. Trade in Kazakhstan also flourished, growing by 7%, while construction activity increased by 16.2%, highlighting the urgent need for better project coordination to control costs.

Of particular note is the Turkistan region, which recorded a significant increase of 60.4%, driven by strong sales of fruits, vegetables and pharmaceuticals. In addition, industrial production was up 6.4%, particularly supported by the coal mining and manufacturing sectors, which include food, tobacco, chemicals and engineering. Agriculture also held its ground with a gross growth rate of 3.9%.

Economic prospects and risks

Given the positive development, Kazakhstan is aiming for strong economic growth with ambitious investment projects for 2025, especially in the areas of transport, logistics, communications, metallurgy and the chemical industry. GDP growth forecasts through the end of the year vary. The World Bank expects an increase of 4.7%, supported by increased oil production and fiscal stimulus, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate the rate at 4.9%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts growth of 5.2% and points to the drivers of the Tengis oil field expansion, which has recently had a positive impact.

However, numerous risks remain. Inflation is estimated at 9.9% and there are concerns about external factors such as slowdowns in major economies, regional conflicts and commodity price fluctuations. In addition, the World Bank considers productivity in the country to be too low, with declining investment also being a concern. The EBRD has cut Central Asia economic development forecasts for 2025 to 5.5% due to an uncertain global economic environment, while a further decline to 5.2% is expected in 2026.

Long-term forecast and challenges

The challenges go beyond the immediate economic risks. The stability of debt levels depends heavily on strict fiscal discipline by governments. Despite the positive growth figures, the country is facing a more cautious economic environment. The warnings about possible indirect effects of global supply chain disruptions and trade policy changes on export dynamics and investment flows cannot be ignored.

Overall, despite robust economic indicators, Kazakhstan remains a country facing both domestic and international challenges. The long-term forecast is further influenced by the adjustment of the forecasts up to 2030 issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This data is online Statista accessible.