Forecast 2030: Global energy transition is booming and fossil fuels are declining

Forecast 2030: Global energy transition is booming and fossil fuels are declining

According to the IEA article, a dramatic change in energy markets is expected by 2030. Demand for fossil fuels will peak and the share of renewable energy will increase sharply. The IEA predicts that renewable energies such as solar, wind and hydropower will achieve a 50 percent market share in electricity generation worldwide. In addition, the number of electric cars in transport is expected to increase tenfold by 2030. China is leading this trend by increasing its reliance on green energy, which is leading to a decline in demand for coal. The energy transition is also being accelerated by the climate policy commitments of several industrialized nations and Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. The overall demand for gas will fall by 2030, while the share of LPG will increase. The IEA also predicts that the Middle East conflict could lead to uncertainty in energy markets in the short and medium term. Overall global demand for oil is expected to decline, which could result in a smaller oil price shock than 50 years ago. Nevertheless, current energy policies are not sufficient to achieve the climate goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. A tripling of the pace of renewable energy deployment is required to achieve this goal.

This shift in energy markets is expected to have far-reaching impacts on the financial industry. Investment in renewable energy will increase as it captures an ever larger market share. Companies specializing in green technologies and sustainable energy production could benefit from this change and create new business models and jobs. Security of supply will increase as dependence on fossil fuels decreases.

The decline in demand for fossil fuels, particularly gas and oil, could lead to an oversupply in the market and drive down the price of these products. This could have implications for companies and countries that rely heavily on fossil fuel production and exports, such as Russia. The increased use of liquid gas and the expansion of solar energy could also lead to reduced demand for Russian gas.

A possible conflict in the Middle East could lead to uncertainties in energy markets in the short and medium term, particularly in relation to oil exports from the region. However, overall global demand for oil is expected to decline, which could lead to a smaller impact on oil prices.

Overall, the change in energy markets is expected to create new opportunities and challenges for companies, investors and regulators