Putin's dangerous game: Ukraine war escalates, NATO on alert!

Putin's dangerous game: Ukraine war escalates, NATO on alert!

The Ukraine war continues to take a worrying turn as President Vladimir Putin orders increased attacks on Ukraine and the terms of a possible negotiation remain uncertain. Despite repeated statements about peace, experts do not expect Russia to be interested in serious negotiations. This is proven by current developments fr.de reports, including Putin's most recent decree, signed on May 30, 2025. This allows the government to revoke shareholder rights of defense companies if they do not fulfill their state defense contract.

Looking at the geopolitical situation, analysts warn of a possible new offensive by Russia in the summer, as well as troop accumulations on the Finnish border, suggesting a potential attack on a NATO member. According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the decree could be interpreted as a sign of a declaration of martial law. This also includes the possibility that parts of the Russian economy and military-industrial base could be confiscated.

Economic challenges

The Russian economy is under significant pressure from Western sanctions, which are weakening the industrial base. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows that industrial production and the service sector are shrinking significantly. High-interest loans with a rate of 21 percent are putting additional strain on companies that plan to cut up to 40 to 50 percent of their contract staff, including IT specialists.

Although President Putin claims that the Russian economy has defied the gloomy forecasts, this resilience is fragile. Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 1.2 percent in 2022, but recovered by 3.6 percent in subsequent years. Nevertheless, military spending accounts for 8 percent of GDP and 40 percent of the national budget, highlighting the government's priorities.

Armed conflicts and lost workers

The military conflicts are taking their toll: British secret services estimate 175,000 to 200,000 Russian victims since the beginning of the war. At the same time, the military-industrial complex is suffering from the costs of warfare and the high loss of soldiers. The Russian unemployment rate is currently around two percent, but the labor force is shrinking by around one million men every year. Returning soldiers have difficulty integrating into the civilian labor market, further exacerbating the situation.

Given the fractured economic conditions, the question is whether Putin can end the war after Ukraine or whether NATO will be the next possible source of conflict. Experts warn that a ceasefire could not lead to lasting peace and would, in fact, further destabilize the situation. The dilemma of Russia's war economy may soon become impossible to ignore, and calls for the militarization of the economy may increase to avoid a complete collapse watson.de analyzed.