Russia's economy is on the brink: demographic catastrophe is looming!

The Russian economy is currently facing several challenges, exacerbated by a combination of high inflation, international sanctions and massive losses in the military sector. How Mercury reported, forecasts indicate significantly lower economic growth in 2025. Experts fear that simultaneous demographic problems could further exacerbate the situation.

The demographic situation in Russia is particularly alarming. Predictions from US think tanks such as the Atlantic Council suggest the population could be halved by the end of the century. Even before the Ukraine war, Russia had to contend with significant demographic challenges. The country is estimated to have lost around 420,000 fighters in 2024, while high levels of alcohol addiction result in between 150,000 and 200,000 deaths annually, mostly among men.

Decline in birth rate

In addition to high death rates, Russia is struggling with a dramatically declining birth rate. June 2024 saw the lowest number of live births since 1999, with fewer than 100,000 births. The birth rate was 1.45 children per woman in 2024, below the required level of 2.1 to keep the population stable. In response, the Kremlin has launched various initiatives to increase the birth rate, including a ban on childless propaganda announced in November 2024.

President Putin has also called on Russian women to have many children. It remains unclear how much he will prioritize this demographic crisis. Experts point out that the possibility of a prolonged war against Ukraine could be seen as a key driver of economic growth in the future. Many analysts are concerned that Putin is prepared to sacrifice everything for war.

The demographic challenges are further exacerbated by the effects of the corona pandemic and the ongoing war, such as Country analyses represents. In addition, Russia's population has been significantly affected, from 148.3 million in early 1991 to the present, and the share of the labor force has decreased since the 2000s. Estimates suggest that demographic trends could contribute significantly to the economic instability the country is currently experiencing.

Overall, the situation is characterized by the rising death rate, the falling birth rate and the government's desperate attempts to reverse these trends. Demographic and economic trends suggest that Russia is facing a complex and profound crisis.