Undeclared work in Germany increased to 463 billion euros: financial expert forecast

Einer Prognose zufolge wird der Umfang der Schwarzarbeit in Deutschland weiter steigen. Experten gehen von einer Zunahme von rund 80 Milliarden Euro im Vergleich zu 2022 aus. Die Schattenwirtschaft würde damit mehr als 10 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung ausmachen. Diese Prognose stammt von Finanzwissenschaftler Friedrich Schneider.

According to Schneider, the amount of undeclared work will increase to an estimated 463 billion euros this year. This means an increase of around 80 billion euros compared to the previous year. If the shadow economy actually accounts for 10.7 percent of economic output, this will have a significant impact on the market and the financial sector.

The increasing number of undeclared jobs leads to significant tax losses and social security contributions, as activities in the shadow economy are often not properly taxed. It is estimated that 2.4 billion euros in taxes and social security contributions are being lost due to the increase in undeclared work alone.

The market impact can also be significant. The increase in undeclared work means that there is more illegal and unregulated economic activity, which can distort competition and fairness in the market. This can have a negative impact on legally operating businesses as they may face unfair competition conditions.

Effective measures are required to curb the extent of undeclared work. This can include increased monitoring and control of undeclared work by the authorities as well as raising public awareness of the consequences and risks of undeclared work. In addition, the state should create incentives to reduce the incentive to work illegally, for example by reducing taxes and duties.

As the article points out, Friedrich Schneider's forecasts are based on various variables such as tax morale, the unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the demand for cash. It is important to continue to monitor these variables and update forecasts regularly to accurately assess the true level of undeclared work.