Seaborne foreign trade: Volume is falling, value is on the rise!

Seaborne foreign trade: Volume is falling, value is on the rise!

The Federal Ministry of Transport's 2040 maritime traffic forecast shows a significant trend in Germany's seaborne foreign trade. While the volume of goods transported is expected to decrease, the value of trade is expected to increase. Loud South Germans The volume will fall from 347 million tons in 2019 to 331 million tons in 2040. At the same time, the value of goods will increase from 830 billion euros in 2019 to a whopping 1.224 trillion euros in 2040.

A key reason for the decline in volume is the falling imports of fossil fuels, which are heavily influenced by the ongoing energy transition. In contrast, trade in high-value goods such as vehicles and machinery is expected to increase. The analyzes include a special evaluation that takes traffic through 19 seaports in Germany into account.

Statistics in detail

The developments in German seaports are particularly noteworthy. A decline in seaborne foreign trade volume is forecast from 212 million tons in 2019 to 195 million tons in 2040. The trade value in the seaports, on the other hand, is expected to grow from 508 billion euros to 764 billion euros. This impressively demonstrates the shift towards more valuable goods in port trade.

• Seewärtiges Außenhandelsvolumen insgesamt: 347 Millionen Tonnen (2019) auf 331 Millionen Tonnen (2040)
• Warenwert insgesamt: 830 Milliarden Euro (2019) auf 1,224 Billionen Euro (2040)
• In Seehäfen: Volumen sinkt von 212 Millionen Tonnen auf 195 Millionen Tonnen
• Warenwert in Seehäfen: Steigt von 508 Milliarden Euro auf 764 Milliarden Euro

Future outlook and demands

Strong growth is expected particularly in chemical products and fertilizers. Particularly interesting drivers for this growth are “unidentifiable goods”, which are predominantly transported in containers. It is estimated that over two thirds of seaborne foreign trade nationwide is carried out through German seaports, with the value of goods showing a rising trend.

In terms of Bavarian exports, a value of 87 billion euros is forecast by 2040, an increase of 30 percent compared to 2019. IHK Northern Vice President Knud Hansen underlines the supra-regional importance of German seaports and calls on the federal government to view port hinterland connections as a central national infrastructure task. In addition, the federal government is calling for annual support of the ports amounting to 500 million euros in order to maintain and expand competitiveness.

Overall, the maritime transport forecast shows that Germany will benefit from qualitative increases in trade value in the coming years, but at the same time will also face challenges caused by structural changes in energy and goods transport. Further information about the forecast and the associated figures can be found on the Federal Ministry of Transport website: BMVI.