Upswing in mood in the Bergische economy: ray of hope or illusion?

Upswing in mood in the Bergische economy: ray of hope or illusion?

According to current surveys by the Chamber of Industry and Commerce (IHK), the mood in the Bergen economy has improved. 21% of companies rate their business situation as “good”, while 51% rate it as “satisfactory”. However, 28% continue to express a negative view. The business situation index has improved by ten points and is now at minus seven points, indicating a slight recovery. IHK President Henner Pasch emphasizes that although the mood has brightened, there is no significant upswing in sight. “More persuasion is needed to win the trust of business,” he adds.
The current situation is also influenced by the coalition agreement, which does not yet trigger a spirit of optimism, as well as bureaucratic problems in Germany. The possible increase in the minimum wage to 15 euros is viewed particularly critically, as IHK general manager Michael Wenge reports. Added to this are the US government's unpredictable customs policy and the tense conditions in global trade, which are considered to be major economic risks.

Industry development in focus

The industries in the Bergisch region show different developments. The industry is struggling with a tense situation due to sluggish order intake and numerous profit losses. However, forecasts for the course of the year are less pessimistic than at the beginning of the year. Wholesalers report poor conditions; every second company reports losses in sales. In contrast, retail is showing a slight upward trend, even if the consumer climate remains negative. The transport industry has improved, but the economic figures do not yet reflect this. The sales and earnings situation remains tense and the hospitality industry is skeptical, despite the reduction in the VAT rate for food.

There is a predominantly positive mood in the service sector, particularly in the IT sector and the real estate industry. However, the investment climate remains weak as many companies hesitate to invest in machinery and equipment.

Labor market and training under pressure

The labor market situation is bleak. Only 9% of companies plan to hire new employees, while 20% expect job cuts. Many companies are under pressure on the training market, and almost one in three training companies expect fewer training contracts in 2025. Nevertheless, the forecasts for the training market are less pessimistic than at the beginning of the year, which gives some companies hope.

In summary, it can be said that the Bergen economy is stabilizing slightly, but is still faced with numerous challenges. The developments in the industry and the mood of companies are closely related to the economic conditions, which also influence wages and investment behavior. According to the monthly report of the German Bundesbank Wages in Germany are continuing to rise sharply, which could support consumers' purchasing power. However, further developments remain to be seen.