Trump's customs policy: EU in trouble - danger to export industry!

Trump's customs policy: EU in trouble - danger to export industry!

The dispute over US President Donald Trump's import duties is having a significant impact on the global economy. On May 30, 2025, the Tagesspiegel reported that the Trump administration was able to achieve a legal victory, but that the general climate of uncertainty for trading partners and consumers remains. These uncertainties are not only a challenge for companies, but also a source of potential risks in the technological area.

The president's current trade policy, which is characterized by rising tariffs, is leading to increased uncertainty in the market. Research shows that, in particular, a hypothetical flat-rate tariff of 25 percent on EU goods could reduce exports to the US by half in the long term. This could have serious consequences for EU companies and their suppliers, as they are also directly affected by the conflict. Differences in the accumulation of data across supply chains and production networks across the EU complicate the analysis of these indirect impacts, which are essential for a sound economic assessment.

Economic impact and sectors

An analysis by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) highlights that key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, transport equipment, motor vehicles and electronics would be particularly affected. These key sectors could see significant declines: Pharmaceuticals -9.3%, Transportation Equipment -7.7%, Automotive -4.1% and Electronics -2.3%. At the same time, the EU's real gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by an average of 0.25%, while Germany would have to expect a decline of around 0.33%.

To counteract the potential losses from the threatened tariffs, the EU could deepen its trade relations with free trade partners such as Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. This change in strategy would also include reducing non-tariff barriers and improving transport infrastructure, which could lead to long-term stabilization and GDP gains in all EU member states.

Technological change and modern solutions

Given the staff shortages and security risks posed by the current situation, modern technology is becoming increasingly important. The Tagesspiegel highlights that solutions such as the remote control of large cargo ships using cameras and mobile phone connections not only offer practical advantages, but also have vulnerabilities, particularly with regard to the protection of card data and secret numbers, which can cause significant damage.

Although modern technology can help to overcome the challenges of today, it also poses new risks. General uncertainties and technical vulnerabilities therefore remain an ongoing issue as the global trading landscape changes. Companies and governments will be required to develop strategies to overcome both economic and technological challenges.

In this complex situation, it remains to be seen how relations between the USA and the EU will develop and what measures are necessary to ensure the stability of the global markets. The ongoing conflicts could have long-term effects on the economic landscape, forcing states to find new ways of cooperation and trade.

For further information on the trade policy consequences and their impact on the EU economy as a whole, the reports from Daily Mirror and DIW be consulted.