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US economy is flourishing – upswing despite tariff increases!
US economy grows surprisingly while global trade remains stable despite uncertainties. Forecasts and developments in focus.
US economy is flourishing – upswing despite tariff increases!
The US economy has recently shown positive development, which is influenced by various factors. Loud trend The industrial sector index rose to 52.3 points in May, up from 50.2 points in April. Experts had previously expected a decline to just 50.1 points. This unexpected rebound may be due in part to efforts by businesses and consumers to avoid tariff-related issues amid the looming possibility of future tariff increases following a 90-day pause in July.
At the same time, the service sector also showed an increase to 52.3 points. US President Donald Trump announced special tariffs at the beginning of April, which were temporarily suspended, but the basic tariff rate of 10 percent remains in place. This suggests an uncertain economic landscape, forcing companies to proactively prepare for the potential challenges.
Global trade forecasts until 2029
Global trade has proven resilient to crises in the past, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. Particularly dynamic growth regions are India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. India is forecast to achieve 6% trade growth by 2029, ranking third behind China (12%) and the US (10%).
European markets in decline
In contrast, European economies are declining in the growth rankings. Poland is expected to fall to 15th place by 2029, while Germany is expected to rise from 67th place to 4th place between 2019 and 2024 with a trade increase of $4,375.3 billion. The Netherlands is expected to move up from 18th to 8th place.
The greatest absolute trade growth is expected in Asia, Europe and North America. High growth rates of 5-6% per year are forecast for the regions of South and Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the ASEAN countries. Despite the trade tensions, U.S. dependence on Chinese products remains high, and U.S. trade policies could encourage other countries to seek closer ties and explore new markets. The US share of global imports is currently 13% and of exports 9%. Direct trade between the USA and China has decreased from 3.5% to 2.6% of world trade since 2016.
The reports on the stability of global trade flows and growth potential provide valuable insights for companies and policymakers seeking to successfully navigate this dynamic economic landscape.