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Conscription debate: Experts warn of drastic consequences for the economy!
The debate about reintroducing compulsory military service has an impact on the economy and the supply of skilled workers in Germany.
Conscription debate: Experts warn of drastic consequences for the economy!
There is currently intensive debate in Germany about reintroducing compulsory military service, which was suspended in 2011 during peacetime. While the Union is campaigning for a return to compulsory military service, other factions in the Bundestag, apart from the Left, are also partly in favor of it. In this context, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is pursuing the introduction of voluntary military service in order to increase the personnel strength of the Bundeswehr. However, there is a lack of a unified concept, as during the coalition negotiations the SPD insisted on voluntary service, while the Union demanded a compulsory year of service for men and women.
In this context, Marc F., a 23-year-old journeyman roofer from Upper Franconia, expressed his desire to do military service. His employer is fighting the shortage of skilled workers as two positions are currently unfilled - a situation that is widespread in the construction industry. Nearly 2,500 construction companies are looking for new employees, partly due to the retirement of the boomer generation. Holger Schäfer, labor market expert, explains that the impact on the labor market depends heavily on the number and duration of soldiers drafted. With 20,000 recruits drafted, the impact would hardly be noticeable; However, around 700,000 young people could be missing if entire cohorts are called up.
The challenges of the Bundeswehr
The Bundeswehr currently lacks around 100,000 soldiers to ensure the necessary defense readiness by 2029. The discussion about compulsory military service is fueled by security policy developments in Europe, such as the Russian threat. Looking at the situation in other countries, states such as Sweden and Latvia have reintroduced compulsory military service following changes in security policy. The differentiation of political opinions in Germany is clear, as the AfD is calling for a return to traditional conscription, while other parties are pursuing new concepts.
The social dimension of the obligation to advertise is also shown: A possible introduction of a new community service could relieve the burden on clinics, daycare centers and retirement homes. According to Professor Panu Poutvaara from the Ifo Institute, reintroducing compulsory military service could be more cost-effective for the state budget, but carries risks by delaying training and entering the workforce. Poutvaara suggests that voluntary service is preferable as long as the reserve size is not more than a quarter of an age cohort.
Economic effects and economic costs
Reintroducing conscription has potential economic costs. A scenario created by Poutvaara shows the impact on gross national income, which could fall under the following assumptions:
| scenario | Decline in private consumption | Decrease in gross national income |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | – 4 billion euros | – 3.4 billion euros |
| 25% | – 20 billion euros | – 17.1 billion euros |
| 100% | – 79 billion euros | – 69.7 billion euros |
Researchers also warn that if there is a drastic decline, Germany would have to take out loans abroad. This is in the context of the dilapidated conditions of many barracks and tanks, the renovation of which requires double-digit billion investments.
The political debate over compulsory military service remains tense as the need for a well-positioned military and dealing with the shortage of skilled workers must be resolved at the same time. Whether the return to compulsory military service will actually provide answers to the challenges remains to be seen.