Is the USA under Trump threatened with an economic crisis due to tariff policy?

Is the USA under Trump threatened with an economic crisis due to tariff policy?

US President Donald Trump's economic policy is currently the focus of intense discussions due to its far-reaching consequences. Despite repeated warnings from leading economists about the potential consequences of his decisions, Trump continues his controversial policies. In particular, the significant 50% increase in tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from June 4, 2025 is causing concerned reactions in the financial world and beyond. Loud it-boltwise.de Experts such as Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve, and the CEOs of JPMorgan and BlackRock, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink, express concerns about the consequences of this policy.

The tariff increase, signed by Trump, is aimed at preventing foreign suppliers from offering surplus steel and aluminum to the U.S. market at competitive prices. According to the daily news jeopardize the competitiveness of the domestic economy and reduce national security concerns. Canada and Mexico, the main suppliers to the USA, are particularly affected by these measures. Canada is negotiating to avoid paying tariffs, while Mexico plans to seek an exemption from the new tariffs because it imports more steel from the U.S. than it exports.

Economic concerns and risks

Increasing tariffs could entail high economic risks. Experts warn that the measures could lead to a rise in inflation and higher bond yields in the long term. Desmond Lachman, a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) official, fears a possible recession as a result of these developments. Companies in the U.S. are already responding by stocking up on inventory to get ahead of impending price increases.

In addition to the tariff increases, a high budget deficit of 6.25% of gross domestic product (GDP) is observed. Trump's lack of serious efforts to reduce this deficit could further increase the national debt. The adoption of a new tax law could also have a negative impact on the country's financial situation. The combination of rising inflation, higher bond yields and a potentially falling value of the US dollar are weighing on markets and could contribute to crisis formation.

The stock market under pressure

At the same time, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio index is showing signs of overvaluation. The crucial question remains whether Trump's economic policies could ultimately lead the US economy and the stock market into a crisis. In the coming months, the impact of the current measures will become apparent and the uncertainties surrounding these decisions could pose a challenge for many investors.