Family businesses have high hopes for Merz's economic policy!

Family businesses have high hopes for Merz's economic policy!

In a current survey of 858 family-run companies, an overwhelming majority of 76 percent are confident about the economic policy of the new government made up of the CDU/CSU and SPD. This survey, conducted in the second half of May, comes at a time when the German economy has been contracting for two years. Experts expect stagnation at best for 2025. Association leader Marie-Christine Ostermann expresses high hopes for Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), as he is seen as a better economic politician compared to the previous traffic light coalition. The first measures to improve economic sentiment should be implemented by summer.

As part of a relief package worth billions, the federal government has already initiated various measures, including substantial tax relief for companies. These are intended to help stimulate the economy and counteract the challenges of sluggish growth. Among other things, special depreciation for electric vehicles and depreciation on machinery and equipment are planned. In total, companies should be relieved of almost 46 billion euros by 2029, which experts see as a step in the right direction.

demands of companies

The Digital Ministry under Karsten Wildberger received positive feedback from 81 percent of the companies surveyed and is seen as a helpful step towards the digitalization of public administration. The federal government's measures aim to improve the economic situation and create psychologically positive effects among entrepreneurs.

Impact on the economy

However, experts express mixed feelings about the actual impact of the planned measures. The first half of the year is already over and it is assumed that the positive effects this year may be limited. Carsten Mumm (Donner & Reuschel) warns against overly pessimistic economic forecasts, but emphasizes the need for further investment incentives and structural reforms. Ulrich Kater (Deka) and Robin Winkler (Deutsche Bank) agree that the framework conditions and political decisions are of crucial importance for the success of the measures.

While equipment investment fell by five percent in 2024 and stagnated in 2025, possible growth of five percent is forecast for 2026. Michael Heise (HQ Trust) estimates that the current measures could make a small contribution to economic growth next year, with a growth forecast of 0.25 percent, while Thomas Gitzel (VP Bank) even speaks of 0.4 percent together with the infrastructure package.

However, the associations' reactions are different. The Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) criticizes the lack of targeted impulses for medium-sized businesses and calls for a uniform summary of depreciation and corporate tax reductions. The DIHK sees the package as an important signal, but not as a liberating blow for the economy. The upcoming “investment booster”, valid for purchases between July 1, 2025 and December 31, 2027, could provide additional stimulus.

In summary, it can be seen that the new government wants to take the right path with its plans for tax relief and further reforms, but the challenges can hardly be underestimated. A positive economic and political environment is crucial to achieving the ambitious goals.

For more details and information about the survey results and the relief package, read MarketScreener and daily news.